Poll: ‘MAHA Winnable Middle’ Could Secure GOP Victory in Midterms

By Adam Garrie, Contributor, The MAHA Report

A recent memo written by MAHA Action President, Tony Lyons, sheds light on the importance of the MAHA vote in the 2026 midterm cycle.

The memo, covered previously in The MAHA Report, cites extensive polling and message testing from respected pollster Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (FLA). The data reveals that MAHA is both a major electoral pivot issue as well as a major Get Out The Vote (GOTV) catalyst.

The MAHA Pivot

According to the data from FLA, a substantial cohort of voters will switch their preference from Democratic to Republican candidates in races where the Republican candidate embraces and articulates MAHA policies and values.

FLA identified a cohort defined as the “MAHA Winnable Middle.” This group, which mirrors the Kennedy cohort discovered in a Zogby poll commissioned by American Values 24 in the last presidential election, is composed of voters who value MAHA priorities.

In his analysis of the Kennedy cohort, Lyons wrote, “The ‘MAHA Winnable Middle’ group chose the generic Democrat by a 5:1 margin. But, when given a choice between a Republican who ‘focused on things like removing harmful toxins from our food, limiting pesticides in agriculture, and making sure our kids are not overmedicated’ and a generic Democrat, the group chose the Republican by nearly a 2:1 margin.”

In other words, if sufficiently motivated to GOTV, the “MAHA Winnable Middle” could potentially shift the election results from a Democrat majority to a (retained) Republican majority in the House.

MAHA as Get Out The Vote (GOTV) catalyst.

FLA identified a second cohort of voters motivated by MAHA policies and messaging from Republican candidates. These voters group, which FLA refers to as “MAHA Rentals,” lean Republican and reject Democrats. However, absent strong signals from Republicans that their GOP candidate will strongly support MAHA policies, these voters will likely abstain from voting in November of 2026.

Referring to the pivot group and the group at risk of not voting at all, Lyons wrote, “Both MAHA voter groups were heavily concerned about price transparency, as there is a belief that by hiding costs, health insurers and providers are able to hike prices and overmedicate patients. Similarly, they want a Congressional candidate who will crack down on conflicts of interest between government health agencies and pharmaceutical companies.”

There are further areas in which the FLA poll demonstrates that issues from the MAHA base will help Republicans.

When potential voters were asked, “Are you concerned about any negative health impacts from any required or optional vaccines?”, a strong majority of Republicans (67%) answered in the affirmative. This figure rose to 79% when filtered for strong supporters of President Trump.

The FLA poll also asked voters whether they believe that vaccines should be administered according to informed consent as opposed to mandates or whether they prefer the preexisting system of mandates (in places like schools).

According to the data, a clear majority of all voters (53%) oppose the pre-MAHA status quo. This number rises to 70% among Republicans and 54% among independents.

Finally, when asked whether vaccine makers should be given immunity from product liability (something in place since 1986), an overwhelming majority of all voters agreed that liability shields should be removed (74%), with a majority of Democrats agreeing (67%).

The responses to these questions demonstrate the presence of a substantial MAHA cohort that will be strongly encouraged to support Republican candidates

Final Analysis

In his final analysis, Lyons reminded the Republican party that ignoring MAHA could have the same negative consequences that befell Republicans who ignored President Trump and his MAGA movement in past years.

Lyons wrote, “Over the last decade, Republicans who have failed to embrace the gift of the MAGA movement have had their political careers meet an untimely demise because they failed to connect with the new Republican coalition built by President Trump. Republicans serving now shouldn’t make the same mistake and fail to embrace the new gift of the MAHA movement.”

He added, “The choice before you and the Members of Congress you lead is simple: Unwrap the gift of MAHA that President Trump has handed you and win big in the midterms.”